Iran's national airline is facing an impending ban from various European countries over concerns related to the country's conduct with Russia. Today, we will analyze what this means for Iran Air, Iranians, and competitor airlines.

Another Ban

Relations between Iran and the Western World have been rather icy in recent decades. Iranian airlines was previously banned from flying to Europe between 2010 and 2016 and briefly in 2020.

Following Iran's recent sale of ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, various European countries have announced a new round of sanctions on the country in addition to the United States.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have announced that any flights from Iranian carriers serving their countries will be suspended. This only affects Iran Air, the only Iranian carrier serving airports in these countries.

If the United Kingdom and European Union both move to ban Iranian carriers from flying to their countries, the reciprocal might also be true.

Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines are the only two airlines from European Union member states flying to Iran with service to Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport (IKA).

With Iran Air facing a ban from European countries, the Iranian government might also move to ban Lufthansa and Austria. It is also likely that because of the European Union's move against Iranian carriers, those two airlines might choose to suspend services on their own accord.

Potential Impacts

Iran Air's European network consists of eight destinations. According to Simple Flying, Iran Air carried roughly 273,000 passengers between Tehran and Europe in 2023. The airline's European destinations are the following, listed in order of popularity:

• London Heathrow, England (LHR)
• Milan Malpensa, Italy (MXP)
• Paris Charles de Gaulle, France (CDG)
• Hamburg, Germany (HAM)
• Frankfurt, Germany (FRA)
• Cologne, Germany (CGN)
• Vienna, Austria (VIE)
• Rome Fiumicino, Italy (FCO)

Iran Air is a comparatively small airline when you look at the other big names serving the Iran-Europe market. While competitors like Turkish Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Emirates necessitate stopovers in their respective hubs, they offer far more services than Iran Air and thus outcompete them in most cases. Iran Air largely remains a popular option thanks to its nonstop offering.

If Iran Air is banned again, passengers will have no choice but to opt for carriers like Turkish or Middle Eastern alternatives. That is not a massive change, given that most passengers from Western countries who fly to Iran are flying these airlines anyway.

However, Iran's location puts it right along the flight path of many routes between the Western world and Asia. Countless airlines pay Iran for the right to use its airspace when they operate routes like Amsterdam to Bangkok or Zurich to Singapore.

If Iran retaliates with a ban on all European airlines, it could entirely ban them from its airspace entirely. That could lead to longer flights requiring more fuel, thus causing pricier tickets.

Türkiye is not a member of the European Union, and airports like Istanbul (IST) are prime locations from which to see old Iranian airliners. Mahan Air, Iran Air, Iran Airtour, ATA Airlines, and Iran Aseman Airlines are just some of the Iranian carriers you'll see at Istanbul Airport.

As such, Turkish Airlines is likely to steal most of Iran Air's traffic when it comes to carrying passengers from secondary or primary European hubs.

Aside from Tehran, Turkish also offers service to the Iranian cities of Isfahan (IFN), Mashhad (MHD), Shiraz (SYZ), Tabriz (TBZ), and Urmia (OMH).

Qatar Airways will be the second airline to benefit significantly as aside from Tehran, the airline serves Isfahan (IFN), Mashhad (MHD), and Shiraz (SYZ). However, the carrier lags behind Turkish when it comes to serving smaller cities in Europe.